National pupil projections, Reporting year 2024 (2024)

This is the latest data

Historic and projected pupil numbers by main school type, England

• In this release projections are only provided up to 2028 due to the uncertainty in fertility assumptions from 2029, when impacted births will reach the main school population.
• Figures are reported as full time equivalent (FTE) unless specified otherwise.
• The actual population in state-funded schools[1] (opens in a new tab) in 2024 was7,951,000. This is projected to decrease by 172,000 (to 7,779,000) over the next four years to 2028.
• The projection model previously published in 2023 estimated a state-funded school population of 7,519,000 in 2028, so the current projection, while still showing a decline, has an estimated 260,000 more pupils than the previous projection for 2028. The trend is unchanged between the two models.
• Last year the pupil projections were calculated on different source data to that usually used, as the ONS population estimates (including the historic estimates which are rebased after the census results are known) and projections did not at that point take account of the 2021 Census.
• New source data affects the model because changes to the actual population numbers lead to different participation rates which are then applied to projected total populations. For example, if participation rates stay the same but the future total population projection numbers are higher, then the calculation between the two will result in higher projected pupil numbers. In addition, if more children are identified in the most recent school census than was previously expected (because of more arrivals from abroad or the private sector for example) then participation rates will also be affected.

[1] (opens in a new tab) Up to and including age 15 at the start of the academic year

Comparison of the results from the 2023 and 2024 pupil projection models

Early years

• Early years calculations include 4 year olds in reception class, which almost all children attend, as well as the younger ages where participation in the state-funded sector is much smaller and there are more part-time pupils.
• The FTE population of under 5 year olds in state funded education is projected to be 780,000 in 2028. This is a 4.4% decrease from the actual figure for 2024 (816,000).
• This population decrease is due to lower births, both actual for 2022 and 2023 and also projected up to 2028. However, the decrease is less than previously projected. One reason for this could be the new migration assumptions in the ONS population data which results in more women of childbearing age than previously projected.

State-funded nursery & primary schools

• The overall pupil population in these school types is projected to be 4,357,000 in 2028. This is 207,000 (4.5%) lower than the actual population in 2024 (4,564,000).
• The projection for 2028 is 176,000 higher than was forecast in the model published in 2023, an increase of 4.2% from last years’ projection.
• The nursery & primary population is therefore still projected to drop, but at a slower rate than previously projected.

State-funded secondary schools

• The secondary school population is projected to be 3,263,000 in 2028. This is 29,000 higher than the total in 2024 (3,234,000).
• The figure for 2028 is 72,000 higher than was forecast in the model published in 2023, a difference of 2.2%.
• The pattern of change in the secondary school population (peaking in 2026 and 2027 then slowly starting to drop) is broadly unchanged, although the peak is two years later than in the previous projections.

Actual (2024) and projected pupil numbers by school type, England (thousands)

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There are several elements which affect the results of the projections. The key elements, and how they affect the results, are detailed below.

Births

• The number of births feed directly into the projections but also affect how births are projected in the future.
• The birth rate increased for over a decade until 2013, when it dropped notably. Birth rates have been dropping, with the exception of a couple of slight rises (one of which was potentially pandemic related) ever since.
• The fertility assumptions used by ONS in the production of their mid-2021 interim population projections were calculated prior to the update to the migration assumptions, the results of the 2021 Census becoming available and the release of additional birth data showing further decreases.
• The next release of national population projections by ONS, provisionally scheduled for November 2024, will include updated fertility assumptions.
• The adjustments made to the source data used in these pupil projections are only expected to have a small impact on the projections to 2028.

Participation rates

• These are calculatedbased on the number of pupils attending school (from the School Census) measured against the total population figures.
• It is therefore important to use population estimates and projections that accurately reflect the overall population size, now the 2021 Census results are available.
• The participation rates are particularly important in the early years, since parents can choose whether or not to send their children aged under 5 to school.
• The participation rates for each school type are projected into the future as the basis of the calculations of projected numbers.
• These rates are affected by any unusual patterns in the underlying total population or the school census data. For example, the large drop in the number of children recorded as attending state-funded alternative provision in 2021 (18% lower compared to the 2020 school census) would have dropped the participation rate for that school type significantly in that year.

Immigration

• Direct immigration of pupils born outside the UK has a small effect on the school age population. However, the birth rate, which has a larger effect, is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-UK born women (who can have higher fertility rates).For more information on this see the methodology section.

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In 2023 alternative source data for the pupil projections were used due to delays in the publication of ONS population estimates and projections that took account of the 2021 Census.

Instead, population estimates produced by the ONS dynamic population model (DPM) were used for historic data from 2011 to 2021. Projected total population figures from the Greater London Authority’s (GLA) population projections (the 5-year migration trend variant) were used as replacement projections, as they included mid-2021 population estimates and took account of the results of the 2021 Census.

This year we have returned to the usual data sources with ONS rebased population estimates, that take account of the Census, and mid-2021 interim population projections.

Note these projections used ONS’s existing fertility and mortality assumptions (carried intomid-2021 projections (opens in a new tab) from the mid-2020 projections), although migration assumptions were updated.

Adjustments were made to the population projections at age 0 (aged on into the future) to allow for the further reductions in birth numbers which have not yet been taken into account in the latest ONS projections. Further explanation on this is given in the “Alternative scenarios” section of this publication and in the methodology document accompanying this release.

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More information on the school census data which forms the start of the pupil projection model, and the differences seen in 2024, can be found in the publication ‘Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics’ published on Explore Education Statistics (EES)here.

More information on the source data used in the production of this projection can be found in the methodology document.

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